One of my earliest memories is from when I was probably between three and five years old. I remember playing
hide-and-seek with my dad. I was very attached to him, so whenever he needed to leave the house, he would say, “Lets play hide-and-seek”. We would start playing, and he would leave the house to go to work, while I stayed at home looking for him. But here is what I remember most: I knew he was gone, but I kept looking for him anyway. I would pretend that he was there somewhere, even though I knew he was away at work. I was fooling myself into thinking that I would find him.
As a child, it makes sense. Kids tend to believe what they want to believe, and it worked for me back then. By the time my father came home, I had forgotten that we were playing hide-and-seek, and I was happy to see him again.
Much of the time, as adults, we continue to believe what we want to believe. I don't mean to say that we believe things without any reason, but we believe, oftentimes, without good reason. And this is something we need to be careful about. Many of us have a confirmation bias:
Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is the tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for emotionally charged issues and for deeply entrenched beliefs. (Wikipedia)
We touched briefly on confirmation bias in our post WRAP Your Villains: An Approach to Decision-Making. Confirmation bias is one of the four villains of decision-making, according to Chip and Dan Heath, and it can limit your ability to make a sound and reasonable decision.
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At work and in life, we often pretend that we want truth, when what we’re really seeking is confirmation of what we already believe, or even reassurance. We’re guilty of confirmation bias when we tell ourselves that we don’t need any help or input from others, and when we ask questions like, “Do these jeans make me look fat?” or “What did you think of my poem?” These questions do not crave honest answers, only reassurance.
On the other hand, there is another reason to believe what we want to believe. There is a saying that goes, “If you believe it, you can achieve it”, and I honestly believe that this way of thinking has incredible potential. It’s completely different from the confirmation bias in the sense that we choose to believe in ourselves when we otherwise would not, rather than using our own bias to convince ourselves and others that something is right when there is clear evidence to prove otherwise.
A few years ago, I was standing at the starting line of my first 100-mile race. I’d never run such a long distance all at once before, and I wasn’t sure of the outcome. But I had done the work, I’d trained hard, and there was no question in my mind that I would get it done. I spent quite a bit of time preparing for the race and I believed in myself to go the distance. Knowing that I was ready strengthened my belief that I could complete the race. And I did.
There can be a fine line between a confirmation bias and the true belief that you can accomplish something. Be aware of which one is pushing you to do something. Recognize the power of your own beliefs, and know that you are in control of how you choose to use them. Leverage your friends and ask for their honest opinions. Most importantly, be open to the possibility of failing.
Stay strong, believe in yourself, and go do it!! And watch out for confirmation bias.
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