Should I or should I not?
I’ve always struggled with making decisions. I am better now, but I used to become paralyzed with indecision, unable to move in any direction. The usual or classical method of approaching decision-making is to weigh the pros and cons for each possible decision. Should I leave or stay? Should I buy those pants or not? Should I propose or not? Should I fire that employee or keep them on? Convention advises us to come up with a list of pros and cons in favor or against the decision that we are trying to make. The truth is, however, that there are better ways.
I’ve gotten started on this train of thought because I am at a point in my life where I’ve reached a crossing, and I want to make the best decision I can in order to move forward. Rather than turning to the conventional method of decision-making, the old pros vs. cons approach, I’m looking for a fresh approach. That’s exactly what I found in the book Decisive by Chip and Dan Heath (aka The Heath brothers).
To write their book, The Heath brothers compiled years of individual experiences and studied many theories on the topic of decision-making. The result of this research is “the four villains” of decision-making, as well as four ways to overcome these villains and make better decisions. These are essential tools to learn, since we all have to make big decisions throughout our lives. Having an effective approach can reduce a lot of the fear and anxiety involved in making decisions, and will ultimately lead to better decisions.
The four villains of decision-making are:
Narrow Framing – This describes a narrow approach to decision-making, and it is the most common villain. It’s the “yes or no” question we are all familiar with and by which most of us approach our decisions. But by only allowing for two choices, we are limiting our options and preventing ourselves from seeing better alternatives. Should I buy a car with extra features or not? How about, instead, should I get the basic model and take my family for a vacation with the extra money, or buy the car with extra features? By adding a third, doable option, you will be able to make a better decision. Another related approach is to employ the “vanishing options strategy”, in which you take out the options that you are considering (yes or no) and see what other possible solutions may be available to you. Is there something you aren’t seeing?
Confirmation Bias - I am guilty of using this villain. It works like this: Imagine you are a scientist with a hypothesis. You believe so strongly that your hypothesis is true that you simply ignore the data that tells you otherwise. Many times we believe something so strongly that is almost impossible to see it differently. Our bias prevents us from considering anything that doesn’t confirm our belief. When we’re dealing with confirmation bias, a simple question can sometimes help us move forward. Ask yourself, “What would it take for my assumptions to be wrong? Can I test my assumptions?” In asking yourself this question, you act as your own “devil’s advocate”. It is important to make sure that we don’t confuse confirming our biases with making the right decision.
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Short Term Emotion - This villain addresses our tendency to make decisions out of emotion. A good example of this villain in action is the used car salesman that does everything within his/her power to encourage an emotional connection between you and your potential new car. They offer you an amazing deal, take you for a test drive, tell you the deal is only good for today, and urge you to buy the car now before you miss this great opportunity. You start to get nervous and scared and end up jumping to a decision. But these are the situations where you want to stick to your guns and give yourself time to decide. Or better yet, separate yourself from the emotion. Avoid the car lot altogether and make your decision at home. You might want to avoid situations that put pressure on you to make hasty decisions, or even employ Suzy Welch’s 10-10-10 approach to decision-making.
Over Confidence - Over confidence is the conviction that you know what the future holds. You believe whole-heartedly in your own predictions, not allowing any room for alternatives. History is riddled with this kind of thinking. It wasn’t all that long ago when many people didn’t believe the Internet would ever catch on, or that people would pay for Television programs. And we all know that, once upon a time, a vast majority of the population believed the world was flat. This type of thinking has already made some big companies obsolete. The people at Kodak were guilty of this when they failed to innovate because they refused to believe that film would ever go obsolete. Being over confident will only cloud your field of vision. Nothing stays the same, everything changes; thus we need to be aware of those changes and be ready for them. So, prepare to be wrong and plan ahead as if you were wrong. Not only will this help clarify the decision at hand, but it will also give you the confidence to move forward, knowing that no matter what happens, you will have a plan.
Finally, to overcome these villains, the Heath brothers organized their method of decision-making in a short, easy-to-remember approach: when you are faced with big decisions, WRAP them.
- Widen your options when framing the problem
- Reality check your assumptions to avoid confirmation bias
- Attain distance from your emotions to see more clearly
- Prepare to be wrong, because the future is uncertain
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